Sunday, January 23, 2005

Outposts of Tyranny

In an echo of President Bush's "axis of evil," Condoleezza Rice on Tuesday named Cuba, Myanmar, Belarus and Zimbabwe as "outposts of tyranny" requiring close U.S. attention. I was wondering what close U.S attention mean?.what kind of a policy the U.S government will be pursing against Myanmar/belarus/cuba and zimbabwe?.The only country close to india in the list is Myanmar.

Myanmar falls on the same category as iraq.A strategic location. Recent Huge finds of gas reserves. Ruled by military junta which still has nobel prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi in house arrest.

Say U.S does an iraq on Myanmar. It would be the best Defense location for US, in terms of south Asia. Myanmar borders India, china, bangladesh, laos and thailand. US would be right on the door steps of china the only country which has the might to stand against US, it can check india's hold on the SAARC countries ,Can bring war on terrorism to the Islamic Bangladesh and can get access to the Indian ocean/bay of Bengal.

Just an imaginary theory. This could be just a warning to the myanmar junta to keep there hands off from acquiring any nuclear capabilities (Myanmar on January 2002 declared that it is building a nuclear reactor) and supporting chinese ambitions in the south asian sea.

But US has been wanting to police the malacca straits for a long time and the
Recently released US NIC(National Intelligence Council) 2020 project devoted more than half of the report to the rise of india and china.So US might want a military base near the fastest growing economies.
The likely emergence of China and India, as well as others, as new major global players—similar to the advent of a united Germany in the 19th century and a powerful United States in the early 20th century—will transform the geopolitical landscape, with impacts potentially as dramatic as those in the previous two centuries.

And here are some more facts that strengthens US interest in Myanmar
#US has been showing lot of intrests in N.E india - FBI offered assistance to serial blasts investigation in N.E States. check the article
#The USA is keen to police the Straits, through which over 80 per cent of Japan's oil supplies from the Middle East are transported.
#China is building a 3657m (12,000ft) runaway near Mandalay (Burma)
#China funds road construction linking Yangon and Sittwe, providing the shortest route to the Indian Ocean from southern China. China has helped in upgrading Myanmar's naval facilities and in setting up four electronic listening posts along the Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea.

Well we have to wait and see how this game is going to unfold. What do you guys think?

I can't see it Sen. Strategic yes. Could they do it? No. Myanmar would be a scorched earth because the Chinese and Indians with their new found strength and ambition would never allow America the space, particularly the Chinese. It would be a suicidal confrontation by America and the total destruction of Myanmar.


Myanmar is in a strategic blind spot. It comes in handy when listing the autocratic regimes of the world, but quite little in terms of meaningful action.

There is no good reason for an overt US intervention in South East Asia. While India and China would not countenance it, neither would Myanmar's ASEAN neighbours.
This was just an imaginary theory,I also feel that US wont do it.But i had the same thought with IRAQ also.And another thing that IRAQ has shown is how much USA care's for other countries opinions.So it is just a matter off how bad US want something.Hope myanmar stays in the blind spot.
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